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Should the stakes of the punters exceed the amount for, the time being in the bank, the banker is not responsible for the amount of such excess. In the event of his losing, the croupier pays the punters in order of rotation, so far as the funds in the bank will extend; beyond this, they have no claim. The banker, may, however, in such a case, instead of resting on his right, declare the stakes accepted, forthwith putting up the needful funds to meet them. In such event the bank thenceforth becomes unlimited, and the banker must hold all stakes (to whatever amount) offered on any subsequent hand, or give up the bank. Spanish 21 Playing Blackjack as a Business, Lawrence Revere, 1971 Sic bo This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future.
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The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5?0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5?0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. The gambler's fallacy exposed OK nothing to do with horse racing, but this is too good not to tell you about. If you could do with extra cash this is a great way to make some money. The following rules are beneficial to the player: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Red dog In March, 1400 Gambling Clubs in Australia removed ATM machines from the gaming area to help curb problem gambling. I think the U S casinos may have to someday address this issue as well. Maybe if it wasn't so easy to gamble with borrowed money we would be better off. Credit card companies could avoid lawsuits like Mr. Marino's by not allowing people to use their cards for online gambling. Notice that the gambler's fallacy is quite different from the following path of reasoning (which comes to the opposite conclusion): the coin comes up heads more often than tails, so it is not a fair coin, so I will bet that the next toss will be heads also. This is not fallacious, though the first step - the argument from a finite number of observations to a statement of likelihood - is a very delicate matter, and is itself prone to fallacies of its own peculiar kind. Spanish 21 provides players with many liberal blackjack rules, such as doubling down any number of cards (with the option to 'rescue', or surrender only one wager to the house), payout bonuses for five or more card 21's, 6-7-8 21's, 7-7-7 21's, late surrender, and player blackjacks always winning and player 21's always winning, at the cost of having no 10 cards in the deck (though there are jacks, queens, and kings). With correct basic strategy, a Spanish 21 game has a lower house edge than a comparable blackjack game.
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